Hook
Your roadmap has 12 dates on it. Not one of them says how likely it is.I see this in almost every portfolio review.Each date was agreed in good faith. Someone added up estimates, added a buffer, and the date went on the slide.Then the slide travelled.Sales repeated it to a customer. Finance planned around it. Leadership stopped asking how it was built.Three weeks before the deadline, the team says it won't make it, and everyone is surprised.Nobody should be.The date never carried its uncertainty. It just hid it.Here is what I'd put next to every date instead:→ The work remaining, counted in items, not story points
→ How many items the team actually finished per week over the last 3 months
→ A range of completion dates from that history
→ The likelihood of each one: 50%, 85%, 95%Then ask a different question in the review.Not “Will you make it?”But “We're at 60% for March. Is that enough, or what do we change?”That conversation has options in it. Scope, sequence, focus.The first one has only pressure.Coaches and delivery leads: how many dates on your current roadmap come with a likelihood?
